The space race just got expensive
SpaceX has had a remarkable week. Two separate contract awards from the U.S. Space Force totalling $6.45 billion suggest the Pentagon is betting the farm on orbital infrastructure.
The larger of the two deals — $4.16 billion — funds a space-based air moving-target indicator (AMTI) sensor network. The goal? Track aircraft from orbit. Early capability is targeted for 2028, years ahead of previous timelines. If it works, stealth becomes significantly less stealthy.
The second award — $2.29 billion — accelerates the Starlink-based SDN Backbone, a proliferated LEO communications network the Space Force wants fielded by end of 2027. This isn’t about Starlink for consumers. It’s about a military communications backbone that can’t be easily jammed or destroyed.
The message is clear: the Pentagon believes the next war will be won or lost in space, and it is paying whatever it takes to get there first.
Russia’s GPS trap
Meanwhile, Russia has found a new way to export the Ukraine war into NATO territory — and it costs them nothing.
GPS spoofing is redirecting Ukrainian strike drones into NATO airspace. A Russian kamikaze drone struck a residential building in Romania, injuring civilians. This is the first confirmed incident of a NATO member state suffering physical damage from a Russian drone.
Lithuania has reported similar incursions. The tactic is elegant in its cruelty: Ukraine fires a drone at Russian positions, Russia spoofs its GPS, and the drone ends up in Romania or Lithuania instead. NATO’s Article 5 dilemma just got real.
Ukraine’s Swedish gambit
Sweden is donating 16 Gripen C/D fighters to Ukraine, and Kyiv has placed an order for up to 20 Gripen E/F variants at a cost of roughly €2.5 billion ($2.9 billion).
The Gripen is an interesting choice. It’s smaller and cheaper than the F-16, designed for dispersed operations from improvised airfields, and carries a formidable electronic warfare suite. For Ukraine, which cannot protect large centralised airbases, this matters.
Saab wins. Ukraine gets a fighter that might actually survive on its airfields. The question is whether they arrive fast enough.
The China question nobody wants to answer
A new CSIS assessment asks the uncomfortable question: Is the United States prepared for a war with China?
The answer, according to their analysis, is no. The US lacks long-range munitions in sufficient quantity. Air defence systems and interceptors are in short supply. Unmanned air, undersea, and surface systems are nowhere near the scale required. And the industrial base cannot spin up fast enough to fix these gaps.
The report notes there are no quick fixes due to production timelines. A war in the Pacific would be protracted, and the US would enter it underequipped. Deterrence, the report implies, is fraying.
What else moved
- Congress wants the Navy’s HELIOS laser in a shipping container. The idea is rapid deployment across the fleet to swat drone swarms. The Navy is already experimenting with palletised designs.
- Saronic launched its first Marauder MUSV — a medium unmanned surface vessel completed in under a year. Dual-use defence and commercial applications.
- ESNA unveiled Surface Effect Ship technology for the UK-Norwegian Joint Commando Craft Program. 67 knots. Beach landing capabilities. Littoral operations just got faster.
- DARPA wants to reinvent the bunker-buster. Moving beyond mass-velocity scaling to shock wave manipulation. The physics is interesting. The targets are presumably in Iran or North Korea.
- The US is considering a naval missile sale to Malaysia, potentially displacing Norwegian Naval Strike Missiles. Kongsberg will not be pleased.
- Trump lifted the naval blockade on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. A deal may be closer than previously thought.
- US ground forces conducted their first confirmed joint operation in Nigeria, killing senior ISIS commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki. The US military’s footprint in Africa is deepening, quietly.