The Middle East’s power dynamics may soon shift dramatically. Today, the U.S. State Department approved a potential $24.3 billion sale of F-35 Lightning II fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. If consummated, this deal would mark a significant escalation in Saudi Arabia’s airpower capabilities and could herald a new era of competition in the region. But this isn’t an isolated event; it’s the latest in a series of substantial U.S. arms export approvals over the past 30 days.
The F-35 Surge
Over the last month, we’ve seen a surge in F-35-related stories. Today alone, there were three pieces on the Saudi Arabia sale, and in the past 30 days, the F-35 has appeared in 15 stories, with a focus on exports, upgrades, and procurements. This trend is part of a broader pattern of U.S. arms exports, which have seen a 31% increase in story volume over the past week.
The Saudi Arabia sale, if it goes through, would provide the kingdom with 48 F-35s and 49 Pratt & Whitney engines. This acquisition could significantly enhance Saudi Arabia’s airpower, potentially altering the balance of power in the region. However, it’s important to note that this sale still requires congressional approval, a process that could face resistance from lawmakers concerned about human rights abuses in Yemen and the Kingdom’s regional alliances.
U.S. Arms Exports: A 30-Day Trend
This F-35 sale is just one data point in a 30-day trend of robust U.S. arms exports. In the past month, we’ve seen:
The U.S. approve the sale of MH-60R helicopters to Greece and MQ-9B unmanned aerial vehicles to Poland. U.S. defense firms secure contracts worth billions, such as Lockheed Martin’s $9.9 billion contract for F-35s and Pratt & Whitney’s $1.8 billion contract for F135 engines.
These deals, along with the proposed F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia, reveal a U.S. defense industry on a roll, with exports playing a significant role in driving growth.
Geopolitical Implications
Geopolitically, this F-35 sale could bolster U.S.-Saudi relations, with the U.S. providing advanced military technology to a key Middle East ally. However, it may also strain ties with other regional players. Israel, for instance, has long enjoyed a qualitative military edge in the region, which this sale could potentially erode. Moreover, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, many of whom are U.S. allies, might view this sale as preferential treatment, exacerbating existing rivalries among GCC states.
What Else Moved
Navantia secured a €2.9 billion contract for four patrol vessels with the Royal Saudi Naval Forces. Japan approved the procurement of two Aegis Ashore systems, valued at ¥236 billion ($1.9 billion), to bolster its missile defense capabilities. Australia announced its intention to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, signaling a major shift in its defense posture.
FORWARD LOOK: As Congress reviews the proposed F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia, we’ll be watching for signs of bipartisan support or resistance. Meanwhile, keep an eye on U.S. defense exports—if the trend of the past 30 days continues, we can expect more significant deals and approvals on the horizon.