Today’s extraordinary footage from Moscow under heavy Ukrainian aerial attack marks a potentially new phase in Ukraine’s long-range air war. In the past month alone, we’ve tracked 25 mentions of drones, with today’s strike being a stark manifestation of this trend. With multiple drone and cruise missile attacks targeting key oil refineries like Kapotno, Ukraine is showcasing its growing capability to strike deep into Russian territory.
This escalation comes amidst a broader global shift towards unmanned systems and precision-guided munitions. Today saw another significant development in this regard: General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems (GA-EMS) and Rheinmetall signing an MOU for cooperative production of Vektrex™, a maneuvering 155 mm precision-guided munition. This aligns with our observations over the past month, during which ‘artillery modernization’ and ‘autonomy’ appeared 16 times each in our trend data.
But it’s not just about Russia and Ukraine. The broader geopolitical landscape is shifting too. Today’s quasi-quarantine operations east of Taiwan by China’s Coast Guard highlight a growing assertiveness that mirrors the increased tensions we’ve tracked over the past 30 days, with stories like “U.S.-China Tensions Rise Over Taiwan” and “India-China Border Dispute Escalates.”
Yet, amidst these escalations, there are also signs of cooperation. Fincantieri and REPUBLIKORP signing a MoU for multi-role naval shipbuilding in Indonesia is a notable development, demonstrating the strategic partnerships forming in defence manufacturing.
WHAT ELSE MOVED: India’s 5G fighter aircraft dilemma highlights New Delhi’s struggle to maintain its air power capabilities, with the Indian Air Force facing an aging fleet and a stealth fighter gap. The U.S. Air Force’s HH-60W helicopters being turned into VIP transports raises concerns about combat search and rescue readiness for major contingencies.
FORWARD LOOK: Next, we’ll be watching how Russia responds to today’s strike on Moscow. Will this mark a turning point in their air defence strategy? Also, keep an eye on India’s fighter jet decision – will they opt for the Su-57 or explore other options?